Rank and Cluster of teams by Shot Statistics – EPL 2015-16

Thanks to ‘s for sharing the data (http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/2/12/5404348/english-premier-league-shot-statistics) which allowed this analysis to take place.  Michael’s Glossary of the stats copied from the same blog has been added at the bottom.

I have taken taken the data from the blog mentioned above: three tables with advanced shot statistics for the 2015-2016 English Premier League, and used advanced statistical techniques to  Cluster an Rank the teams with respect to each table of stats.  Note that Michael’s data is updated up to May 2, 2016; so, for most teams, the stats of the last two matches are not included .  Given the debacle suffered by Tottenham in in the last two games, this is probably the team whose ranking may not reflect the final results.

Color scale 2015-16 Shots

Red means more, and signifies better stats in Attack and worse in Defence (more Shots, Goals, etc. conceded).  Fancy has a mixture of both positive and negative stats.

Attack

Attack_1 2015-16

Legend: Arsenal has the best Attacking stats, followed by Man City, Liverpool, and Tottenham.   These teams also share a significant advantage over teams in the second and following clusters.  Surprisingly, relegated Newcastle tops the last cluster – so Defence appears to have been the problem.

Defence

Defence 2015-16

Legend: Man City tops the Defence stats ahead of Liverpool, apparently not greatly affected by Sakho’s absence in the last games.  Strangely, Leicester has similar stats to those of relegated Norwich and Aston Villa.

Fancy

Fancy 2015-16

Legend: Taking both Defence and Attack shot stats into account, Tottenham has the more positive mix, closely followed by Man City and Arsenal.  However, given this team dismal performance in the last two matches (stats not included in the data), perhaps its top spot may mot be justified.

Glossary

Shot locations are based on Michael’s map matrix below. Penalties are not included.

Shot zone

DZS: Shots from the danger zone, which is zones 1-3, the close and central areas of the box.

WS: Shots from the wide areas of the 18-yard-box, zones 4-5.

SoB: Shots from outside the 18-yard-box, zones 6-8.

%Cross: Percentage of shots from the danger zone assisted by crosses.

%TB: Percentage of shots from zones 1-5 assisted by through-balls.

SoT: Shots on target

DZ Pass: Shots assisted by passes in or around the danger zone.

Counter: Shots attempted from counterattacking moves

Est. Poss.: Shot attempted from established possession in the opposition half

NPG: Goals not from penalties or from own goals. (xG is meant to nearly sum to NPG, but it does not quite because (a) the fit isn’t exactly perfect and (b) xG deprecates shots off rebounds and only counts for a team one shot from every attacking move.)

TSD: Total Shots Difference, shots taken minus shots allowed.

SoTD: Shots on target difference, shots on target minus shots on target conceded.

xG: Expected goals scored or conceded based on shot type, assist type and shot location, speed of attack and a few more factors. For the explanation of the components of xG, see my full open-method expected goals methodology.

Expected goals here does not sum to the same total as goals, because it excludes penalties and own goals, as well as deprecating the value of chances off rebounds.

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About soccerlogic

Data analyst/miner of 23 years experience. Pretty sure I was first (1998) to apply Statistical Analysis and Machine Learning to study performance in soccer. I probably invented Soccer Analytics or, as I called it then, Football Intelligence. Haven't stop learning since, and experimenting new analysis that can help teams improve performance.
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